• Competition: AFC Champions League
• Date: Monday, 16th September, 2024
• Kickoff: 19:00 UK / 20:00 CEST
• Venue: King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)

On Monday evening, the AFC Champions League is set to restart. In the first round, one of the most interesting matches will be between Al Ahli from Saudi Arabia and the best Iranian team, Persepolis. The game will take place at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.

Al Ahli are one of the Saudi Arabian teams that invested a lot of money over the past years. Last year, they finished 3rd, which was enough for the AFC Champions League, but they were not even close to winning the title, as they finished 31 points away from the champs, Al Hilal. Still, over the Summer, they further improved the team by adding Ivan Toney. Considering that they had some problems with efficiency, that transfer could drastically change their chances in both the domestic league and the AFC Champions League. Unfortunately for the team from Jeddah, they did not start the season well, winning only four points in three rounds and losing in the Super Cup Semi-Finals as well.

Persepolis are the most successful team in Iran. In recent years, they have dominated the domestic league, winning seven league titles in the last eight years. This year, they haven't had the best start, winning five points in three rounds, which is pretty poor for their standards. When it comes to the AFC Champions League, they had some success during that eight-year stretch, even finishing as runner-up in 2018 and 2020. Still, last year, they finished the competition in the Group Phase, and their goal is to change that. However, considering that the AFC Champions League format has changed, we believe they have much bigger chances for success.

Al Ahli vs Persepolis: Under 2.5 goals

Al Ahli had problems offensively last year. Even though they finished 3rd and averaged almost two goals per game in the league, the difference between them and Al Hilal and Al Nassr was enormous. While the top two teams scored 101 and 100 goals in 34 rounds, Al Hilal "only" scored 67. They tried to address that by adding Ivan Toney, but he just arrived and will probably need some time before to adapt. This season, Al Ahli were all four times under 2.5 goals while scoring just one goal per game.

Like Al Ahli, Persepolis were under 2.5 goals in all (three) games this season. They are generally a team that plays low-scoring games and were under 2.5 goals in 70% of their domestic league games last year. In the AFC Champions League last year, Persepolis were under this line in five of six games - 83.3%.

Considering all the above, we believe that an under 2.5 goals bet should be the safest option for this AFC Champions League tie.